Foresight without false certainty
Abstracts
Abstracts
Foresight is more useful when it leaves room for uncertainty. In “The 1%: The Rare Trait of Prescience in a World of Uncertainty,” I argue that prescience draws on experience, deep knowledge, and pattern recognition—not something mystical.
The article also points to comfort with ambiguity and probabilistic thinking. For decisions about what to build, that distinction matters: a forecast can inform a choice without pretending the outcome is guaranteed.